In a new analysis, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Dutch central bank, concludes that the economic return on AI in the Netherlands will not materialise by itself. Large companies and digital sectors are leading the way, while SMEs and sectors such as construction, hospitality and transport are lagging behind. According to the central bank, smaller businesses often lack the time and expertise to adapt their work processes.
De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) has published an analysis of the economic significance of AI for the Netherlands. In the publication AI in Nederland, the central bank states that the technology can make the economy more productive, but that this return depends on three factors. Businesses must deploy AI productively in their work processes, successful applications must spread more widely, and innovative companies must be given room to grow.
Uneven adoption
According to DNB, the Netherlands is in a favourable starting position thanks to its digital infrastructure, a highly educated workforce and a large knowledge-intensive services sector. The analysis finds that Dutch businesses are among the European frontrunners in the use of AI. However, adoption is not progressing equally quickly everywhere. Large companies and digital sectors are leading the way, while smaller businesses and sectors such as construction, hospitality and transport are lagging behind.
DNB points out that SMEs in particular could benefit from software and cloud services that make specialist knowledge accessible. In practice, however, these businesses often lack the time and expertise to adapt their work processes accordingly.
Dependence on suppliers
DNB describes reliable and affordable access to AI models, data and computing power as essential to reaping the macroeconomic benefits of AI. According to the central bank, the Netherlands does not need to develop the largest models itself, but must avoid becoming dependent on a handful of large technology companies or countries. DNB sees European cooperation on cloud and data infrastructure as a way to create alternatives and to prevent businesses from being locked in to a single supplier.
Changing work
The central bank does not expect AI to necessarily lead to fewer jobs, but it does expect the nature of work to change. DNB advises employers to involve employees at an early stage in decisions about AI applications and to set out agreements on retraining and upskilling in collective labour agreements. If a move to different work proves necessary, DNB says support through training and career guidance should begin before jobs are lost.
Dynamism and inflation
According to DNB, the societal gains from AI also depend on the extent to which the economy is able to adapt. Policy must prevent labour and capital from remaining stuck in less productive activities. The central bank therefore calls for a critical look at regulations that hinder the founding, growth, downsizing or closure of businesses, and for a better-functioning European capital market for growth financing.
DNB is also monitoring the impact of AI on inflation. In the short term, global investment in chips, data centres and the electricity grid could drive up costs. In the longer term, the central bank expects AI to be able to ease price pressures, as employees become more productive and businesses are able to produce more cheaply. This dual effect makes the economic picture harder to assess, which is why DNB will continue to monitor both the investments and the actual returns.
The full report can be read via AI in Nederland.
This article was originally published in Dutch on MSP Business. Read the original →
